Terraforming Mars

We've never terraformed a planet other than Earth, so there are conflicting theories or hypotheses concerning what it would take to terraform Mars. Select outtakes from an old Reddit comment by me:

Mars actually has an atmosphere, though it doesn't have a breathable atmosphere humans could survive in.

From copilot: 

 The atmospheric composition of Mars is primarily as follows: Carbon Dioxide (CO2): 95.32% Nitrogen (N2): 2.7% Argon (Ar): 1.6% Oxygen (O2): 0.13% Trace Gases: Includes carbon monoxide, water vapor, and methane. 

The current atmospheric composition of Earth is approximately: Nitrogen (N₂): 78.08% (most abundant gas) Oxygen (O₂): 20.95% (essential for respiration) Argon (Ar): 0.93% (inert gas) Carbon Dioxide (CO₂): 0.04% (plays a role in the greenhouse effect) Trace Gases: Includes small amounts of other gases such as helium, neon, and others. 

Generally speaking: plants breathe carbon dioxide and give off oxygen. Hypothetically, you could seed Mars with cold tolerant plants in identified microclimates of less extreme cold and let them develop, thereby slowly dropping the extremely high levels of carbon dioxide and raising oxygen levels. 

You would probably need to figure out how to inject nitrogen because that's by far the dominant gas in earth's atmosphere. Water would also be a significant limiter ... "They dumped nitrogen, carpet bombed select areas with seeds and a water supply and X years later sent the first colonists..." 

In general terms, life gives off heat and water stores heat and both mitigate extremes of temperature. Deserts are typically both hotter during the day and cooler at night and coastal areas with high humidity are generally more temperate, which is why extreme weather is generally found farther from the coast.

The CEO of Blue Origin is leaving for his own startup that involves mining resources on the Moon. If we create a base on the moon and from there leapfrog to the asteroid belt, there is more or less "unlimited" mineral resources available of things we need for our all important TECH development.

I originally made that point -- that our definition of scarce resources will change once we are in space -- in a college paper in my thirties.

For me, that's not a new thought. But it's now my understanding that an asteroid belt in a solar system is probably not the norm.

So I have greater clarity that it's a big deal to have the equivalent mass of a planet in the form of an asteroid belt, but I've long assumed that mining the asteroid belt would change our supply chain and industry and tech sectors.

The asteroid belt is a big deal because it's rich in valuable minerals and they are easy to get at.

There's no molten core, so the ENTIRE mass of a planet is available for strip mining. 

There's no atmosphere, no ecosystem, no biome, no plants, no animals, no oceans complicating the mining process.

It's a HUGE amount of minerals and easily accessed once you establish space mining. 

Ideally we colonize the Moon, create 3 or 4 bases on some of the largest asteroids in the asteroid field. Those bases can facilitate space mining AND widen the Mars launch windows. Then establish Moon-based facilities for processing the ore, manufacturing etc.

THAT puts us halfway to Mars while people here simultaneously sort out terraforming which isn't as hard as science fiction makes it out to be.

Humans have been doing that for centuries. We typically call it agriculture or urban planning and see no connection between that and colonizing Mars.

I've long written about space in places like Metafilter and Hacker News. I write some half assed reddit comment and then I sit around wondering about the holes in the proposal. 

Holes in the Proposal 

Well we probably need fertilizer and additional ways to close the gap on temperature. It's good enough for a fictional story. It's still short on details for actually terraforming Mars.

But fertilizer etc is something we already know how to do. Cold tolerant plants plus select microclimates plus ????? gets you to around the thaw point where life might happen.

We could start a lab in Antarctica. If we can grow plants there, we can probably seed Mars.

From internet search summary:

-20°C to -60°C

The current temperature in Antarctica varies by location, but you can find temperatures in 16 cities across the continent. For example, the temperature can range from around -20°C to -60°C depending on the specific area and time of year. 

The temperature on Mars is relatively low, averaging about minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 60 degrees Celsius).

This combination of factors makes Mars a harsh and cold world whose temperature can drop to as low as minus 200 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 128 degrees Celsius). As a point of comparison, the lowest recorded temperature on Earth is minus 128.6 degrees F (minus 88 degrees C) in Antarctica according to Arizona State University.

If we can create a garden in Antarctica, we can probably terraform Mars.

Meanwhile, the highest temperature on Mars is 70 degrees F (21 degrees C), significantly below the highest temperature recorded on Earth, which Arizona State University places at 134 degrees F (56 degrees C) in Inyo County, California, USA. 

It does get above freezing in places on Mars. 

The atmosphere is thinner than earth's atmosphere. We need to figure out how to beef it up.

Carbon dioxide is apparently a coolant. Altering the atmosphere to make it breathable should raise temperatures.

Occurrence

Nitrogen is a very common element, both on Earth and in the universe. It is ranked as the 7th most abundant element in the universe and is present in the Solar System and the Milky Way. If forms a distinct surface coverage on Pluto. In diatomic form, N2 gas is the most abundant free element in the Earth’s atmosphere and makes about 78% of it, along with oxygen, carbon dioxide etc. Nitrogen is also prevalent in the living systems, as it is part of various vital components of a living organism, including proteins, amino acids, DNA, RNA and in the energy currency of the cell, ATP. 

Figure out IF mars has a native source of nitrogen that can somehow be released into the atmosphere.

If so, HOW do we do that? Nitrogen is essential to life.

Find WHERE there's water on Mars. If you can identify warm microclimates with access to water and a Nitrogen source, that vastly reduces the costs involved in terraforming Mars.